We'll just have to let the early numbers stand for themselves two weeks into the season. Well, we don't have projections for the USFL, a brand-new league with eight brand-new teams. To get around these problems in the NFL, we use DAVE, mixing in our preseason projections to help smooth out the effects of variance early. The Stallions, Generals, Gamblers, and Panthers have only played one another, as have the Breakers, Stars, Bandits, and Maulers. There's a lack of interconnectivity in the data too: because the USFL's Week 2 just had one-to-one opponent swaps from Week 1, you can divide the league in two based on opponents. There's a lack of data, with each team having only played two games. Until that point, we'll figure out which system we want to keep using based on your feedback.ĭoing anything like this just two weeks into a season is fraught with problems, of course. SRS is just scaled in terms of points above or below average, while EVOA is scaled as a percentage above or below average-and on the same scale as DVOA, which will be interesting if the USFL grows large enough to the point where we start doing actual DVOA calculations for it. EVOA has about a 0.9 correlation with actual DVOA at the NFL level, so while it is an over-simplified estimation, it's good enough for a ballpark figure.īoth SRS and EVOA measure the same thing in the same way, as it's a direct one-to-one conversion from one to the other. It's not DVOA, but it's the next best thing-Estimated Value Over Average, or EVOA.
And because this is Football Outsiders, we can also roughly convert those stats into their DVOA equivalents, using the same system we used to estimate NFL team quality before 1950 during our Dynasty Project. We're going to do the same thing here for the USFL to produce our own rankings, generating an overall SRS as well as offensive and defensive SRS for all eight teams.
That means that the Bengals were 3.1 points per game better than an average NFL team in 2021. Therefore, the Bengals' SRS was 4.9 - 1.9, or … well, 3.1 because of rounding, but you get the idea. Their opponents had an average SRS of -1.9. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals had an average margin of victory of 4.9 points in 2021. SRS is a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule-like any good rating system, the better you play and the better your opponents, the higher your overall rating.
#Let play def jam fight for ny pro#
Pro Football Reference uses the Simple Rating System to rank teams. We just have to turn to a simpler solution. We're not doing DVOA for the USFL this season, but that doesn't mean we can't take a look at team strength beyond the realm of wins and losses. Some of that was expected, but the league remains in a position where they're struggling to get the sort of attention they were hoping for. But attendance remained low and viewership took a stiff dive from Week 1's numbers. Whether that was actually an edict from their respective broadcast teams or simply a coincidence, both networks' broadcasts calmed down from their over-produced debuts and were generally more enjoyable games to watch. It seemed like the NBC-helmed broadcasts tended to stick more to traditional camera angles than the FOX-led coverage. The production of the games got noticeably better, with the omnipresent drones and helmetcam shots being mixed in with a bit more judgment this time around. Off the field, we had more of a mixed bag. We're beginning to see a few of the teams develop some actual chemistry, with about half the league beginning to get consistently acceptable play on both sides of the ball, at least for a minor league. We also had one absolute stinker, but I suppose they can't all be winners. On the field, Rivalry Week was a big jump over the quality of play in Week 1 as we had one legitimately fantastic game, a second very solid contest in front of a partisan crowd, and a pasting that established a clear favorite atop the league. USFL - Week 2 of the USFL has come and gone.